Deutsche Bank Sees 50,000-Plus Orders for Updated Li i6

By Amara Osei

Deutsche Bank estimates cumulative orders for Li Auto's (NASDAQ: LI) updated Li i6 electric SUV have surpassed 50,000, anchoring its forecast that November deliveries will rebound above 40,000 vehicles. The bank shared the figures in a research note on Tuesday from analyst Wang Bin's team.

The estimate rests on two data points: dealer checks showing Li i6 delivery wait times of 9 to 11 weeks, and Li Auto's plan to lift monthly i6 production capacity to 20,000 vehicles in November. Neither figure comes from the company's own order disclosures. Treat the 50,000-plus figure as a bank estimate, not a confirmed order count.

What happened to October deliveries?

The order buildup follows a painful model changeover. The Li i6 delivered just 1,977 vehicles in October, down 73.21% from September, and accounted for only 6.81% of Li Auto's monthly deliveries, according to data compiled by CnEVPost. Before the update, the SUV carried the company: i6 deliveries totaled 162,198 vehicles in the first 10 months of the year.

Li Auto's total October deliveries fell 8.63% year-on-year to 29,025 vehicles, the lowest since February. Production reached 37,908 vehicles during the month. Deutsche Bank said the gap largely reflects the production transition for the updated i6.

Li Auto launched the 2026 Li i6 on October 28 and began deliveries the next day. The update added in-house chips, battery and cabin features while holding the starting price at 249,800 yuan ($37,190). Customers buying by November 30 can access a limited-time price of 239,800 yuan.

Li Xinyang, head of Li Auto's product line, said on October 30 that the company planned to raise i6 capacity to 20,000 vehicles in November, with a further increase in December. He put delivery wait times at 7 to 8 weeks at the time. The bank's dealer checks now show 9 to 11 weeks, which suggests demand is outrunning the executive's earlier schedule — or that the ramp is slower than planned.

Can the in-house battery win over buyers?

Some consumers remain wary of the Li i6's in-house Lianshan battery, which replaces CATL (HKEX: 3750) cells. The skepticism is not baseless: an unproven battery in a mass-market family SUV is a real purchase risk. Dealer feedback, however, suggests customer acceptance has been encouraging, Deutsche Bank said.

The updated i6 uses a 96-kWh Lianshan 5C lithium iron phosphate battery, lifting the rear-wheel-drive version's CLTC range to 780 kilometers (485 miles). The bank believes the capacity and range upgrades help ease consumer concerns. No independent sales data yet confirms that view.

The SUV's other hardware includes a Qualcomm Snapdragon 8797 cockpit chip, dual front zero-gravity seats with 18-point massage, and Li Auto's in-house Mach M100 driver-assistance chip as standard. Dealer sales staff see Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) Model Y, Xiaomi's (HKEX: 1810) YU7 and the Zeekr 7X as the main competitors. They cite the intelligent cockpit and cabin comfort as key draws.

What else is Deutsche Bank watching?

Sales staff at dealerships visited by the bank expect monthly i6 sales to gradually recover to around 20,000 vehicles over November and December. That matches the company's stated capacity plan, though capacity and sell-through are not the same thing.

Elsewhere in the lineup, the bank's checks show delivery wait times of 10 to 12 weeks for the Li Mega MPV and 4 to 6 weeks for the Li i9. The Li i8, Li L9 and Li L8 are available with virtually no wait — a sign of soft demand for the older models, or ample supply, depending on which reading you trust.

Li Auto recently doubled insurance subsidies for its mature models to 10,000 yuan from 5,000 yuan. Those promotions, alongside the i6 ramp-up, underpin the bank's November recovery forecast.

The bank also expects Li Auto's third-quarter gross margin to rise 6.7 percentage points from the previous quarter to 16.7%, with its net loss narrowing about 80% to 300 million yuan. That beats the consensus estimate of a 942 million yuan loss — by a wide margin. Consensus has been wrong before.

Deutsche Bank maintained its price target of HK$76 and said it would keep monitoring demand for the L-series extended-range models and the i6 ramp-up to assess recovery prospects for volume and margins heading into 2027.

What to watch next: November delivery figures, due in early December, will test the 40,000-vehicle forecast. The i6's first full month of 20,000-unit capacity, and whether the L-series erosion continues, will decide whether the recovery is real.

($1 = 6.7167 yuan)