Li Auto Q3 loss seen narrowing to 300 million yuan as deliveries hit 99,964

Li Auto will report third-quarter results before US markets open on November 25, and the hardest number is already public: 99,964 vehicles delivered in the quarter. That figure, compiled by CnEVPost, sits near the top of the company's own guidance of 95,000 to 100,000 units.

Deliveries rose 7.24 percent year-on-year and 1.66 percent from the second quarter. The company had forecast quarterly revenue of 26.6 billion yuan ($3.96 billion) to 28.0 billion yuan. ($1 = 6.7167 yuan.) Management will hold an earnings call at 8:00 pm Beijing Time, or 7:00 am US Eastern, with a live webcast and replay on the investor relations site.

Can Li Auto stop losing money?

That is the central question for November 25. Li Auto posted a 1.7 billion yuan net loss in the second quarter, narrowed from 2.3 billion yuan in the first. Second-quarter revenue fell 15.1 percent year-on-year to 25.7 billion yuan. Overall gross margin stood at 11.0 percent, vehicle margin at 9.4 percent — both improved quarter-on-quarter, both still thin for a manufacturer at this scale.

Deutsche Bank analyst Wang Bin's team, in a research note issued today, forecasts third-quarter revenue of 27.0 billion yuan, up about 5 percent from the second quarter. The bank expects gross margin to recover to 16.7 percent. It sees the net loss narrowing to 300 million yuan, well ahead of the 942 million yuan consensus loss cited in its report.

That is a forecast, not a result. The margin call rests on two specific assumptions the bank named: an improved product mix, and the removal of cash subsidies on the previous-generation Li L6. Those gains must also absorb cost pressure from rising battery, memory chip and raw material prices. If input costs run hotter than the bank models, the recovery narrows.

What is going wrong in Q4?

October deliveries fell 8.63 percent year-on-year to 29,025 vehicles, the weakest month since February. Through the first ten months of the year, Li Auto delivered 322,461 vehicles, down 1.96 percent year-on-year. The trajectory is negative going into the quarter that carries the year-end push.

The company's answer is the refreshed Li i6. It launched the 2026 Li i6 electric SUV on October 28 and began deliveries the next day. Li Auto has previously said it plans to raise the model's monthly production capacity to 20,000 vehicles in November — an intention, not yet a demonstrated run rate.

Deutsche Bank estimates cumulative orders for the refreshed i6 have exceeded 50,000 vehicles. It expects November deliveries to rebound above 40,000 units, including 16,000 to 20,000 Li i6 SUVs. Treat the order figure as a supplier-side claim until monthly registration data confirms it.

What to watch

Three markers will settle the argument. First, the November 25 release: whether the actual net loss lands near Deutsche Bank's 300 million yuan or the 942 million yuan consensus. Second, whether gross margin clears 16.7 percent against rising battery and chip costs. Third, whether the i6 hits its 20,000-unit monthly capacity claim during November — and whether October's 29,025 deliveries mark the floor or the start of a slide.