General Motors expects the US market to get markedly more crowded as global carmakers retreat from China and treat America as a "safe haven" — and the Detroit automaker says it will respond by staying lean and pushing EV costs down.

Chief financial officer Paul Jacobson told the Financial Times in London that the US was "becoming an outlet for global automakers who are facing the pressure of China in their international markets." His forecast is blunt: "It will become more competitive."

The competitive math

The pressure GM faces comes from two directions at once. Volkswagen, Stellantis and Toyota have already prioritised the US to offset weaker sales in China and lower profits in Europe and elsewhere. President Donald Trump's trade war and higher tariffs have further encouraged that investment shift.

At the same time, executives and politicians are watching the swift European expansion of BYD and Chery as a preview of how fast Chinese manufacturers could grow in the US if trade barriers come down. Concern intensified after Trump said he would "be OK" with Chinese companies building US car plants if they employed American workers.

Jacobson declined to comment on a possible entry by Chinese carmakers. Before Chinese President Xi Jinping's White House visit last week, the American auto industry urged Trump to keep Chinese vehicles out through ultra-high tariffs and a ban on Chinese software.

The cost of the EV retreat

GM carries its own scar tissue from the transition. The company took a $6bn writedown early this year as it scaled back EV production capacity. Jacobson said GM will keep working to make its EVs more affordable and profitable, and the company is developing new batteries it expects to cut EV costs significantly from 2028.

US EV sales have continued to fall despite higher fuel prices driven by the Middle East conflict, following the end of EV tax credits last year. The rollback of vehicle emissions policies has, in turn, attracted global brands, because it lets manufacturers keep selling higher-margin petrol pick-up trucks and large SUVs.

Jacobson cautioned that US climate policy could stay volatile for the next five years — a warning that cuts both ways for plant planning, since capacity decisions made for one regulatory regime may strand under another.

Volume where it counts

On affordability, Jacobson offered a concrete number: GM sold 700,000 vehicles last year with starting prices below $30,000. That matters with the average listed price of a new US car sitting above $50,000.

Under chief executive Mary Barra, GM has cut its global footprint by leaving Europe, Vietnam and Australia, prioritising profit over sales volumes. The China business is now profitable following a restructuring, and global margin and cash flows have improved.

The strategy Jacobson describes is defensive discipline rather than expansion: "We need to make sure that the business is as competitive as possible with high-quality products and trim our structural costs wherever we can."

What to watch

Three markers will tell whether GM's lean posture holds. First, the 2028 date for the new battery chemistry and its claimed significant EV cost reductions — the first test of whether the post-writedown EV plan can reach profitable scale. Second, any White House decision on Chinese software bans and ultra-high tariffs following the industry's pre-summit lobbying, which would set the terms for BYD- and Chery-style entry. Third, whether the sub-$30,000 segment — 700,000 units of GM's volume — survives as rivals redirect China-market capacity toward the US price ladder.