China NEV wholesale sales hit record 1.8 million in October, CPCA estimates

China's passenger new energy vehicle wholesale sales reached an estimated 1.8 million units in October, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) said in a preliminary report released Tuesday. That figure would surpass the previous monthly record of 1,706,000 units set in November 2025, according to data compiled by CnEVPost.

The CPCA projects year-on-year growth of 12% and a month-on-month increase of 8%. Cumulative passenger NEV wholesale sales for the first ten months of the year stand at roughly 13.22 million units, up 9.9% year-on-year.

One caveat matters here. The 1.8 million figure is an extrapolation, not a tally. The CPCA collected preliminary figures from major manufacturers with September NEV wholesale sales above 10,000 units — a group that covered 93% of total passenger NEV wholesale sales that month. Those makers reported combined preliminary October sales of about 1.62 million units. The association then applied September's market-share breakdown to scale the total to roughly 1.8 million. Final numbers may shift.

What is driving the growth?

Two forces stand out in the CPCA's account. Persistently high overseas oil prices weighed on demand for gasoline vehicles, creating an opening for NEVs to gain ground, the association said. Oil prices also stayed elevated longer than expected, further supporting China's NEV production and sales.

Timing helped as well. The Mid-Autumn Festival fell in September, and production and sales regained momentum in October after the holiday distortion.

Growth was not frictionless. The CPCA flagged supply-chain and trade uncertainty stemming from overseas geopolitical conflicts. A high comparison base also constrained growth: buyers rushed to purchase ahead of a tightening of trade-in subsidies a year earlier. Even so, NEV sales growth significantly outpaced the broader auto market, making the segment a key driver of stability as the passenger vehicle market entered a recovery following an earlier adjustment, the CPCA said.

Who led the market?

BYD led with 483,125 passenger NEV wholesale units in October. Geely followed with 213,165, then Chery with 134,471, Changan Automobile with 122,422 and Leapmotor with 103,021. All five posted strong year-on-year and month-on-month growth, and several major manufacturers — spanning domestic brands, joint ventures and EV startups — recorded their highest-ever October NEV wholesale sales.

The top ten by wholesale volume:

• BYD — 483,125
• Geely — 213,165
• Chery — 134,471
• Changan — 122,422
• Leapmotor — 103,021
• SAIC-GM-Wuling — 97,241
• SAIC Passenger Vehicle — 76,479
• Tesla China — 67,829
• Xpeng — 50,237
• Xiaomi EV — 50,000+

Geely, Chery, SAIC Passenger Vehicle, Xpeng and Great Wall Motor each posted record monthly NEV sales in October. Joint ventures SAIC Volkswagen and FAW-Volkswagen both saw NEV wholesale sales double year-on-year — 17,975 and 14,933 units respectively — though both remain far below the domestic leaders in scale.

The long tail is thin. Nio moved 34,246 units, Li Auto 29,025, and GAC Aion 44,871. At the bottom, Hycan reported just 18 units. The "others" category adds 39,589 units to the total.

What to watch next

Watch the CPCA's final October data, which will replace this extrapolated estimate with actual registration-based figures. The November comparison is the harder test: the new record base of 1,706,000 units from November 2025 now becomes the hurdle, and year-on-year growth math turns against the market. The trajectory of trade-in subsidy policy and oil prices will decide whether the recovery holds through year-end.

($1 = 6.7150 yuan)