Chinese battery makers pass 56% of non-China EV market

Chinese battery manufacturers captured 56.4 per cent of the EV battery market outside China in the first nine months of 2024, up from 43.1 per cent a year earlier. The finding comes from SNE Research, the Seoul-based market analysis firm, which measured 426.7 GWh of installed capacity for BEV, PHEV and hybrid batteries across the non-China market from January to September — a 24.7 per cent increase year over year.

CATL and BYD alone now hold 44.5 per cent of that market, against 36.7 per cent in the same period of 2023. "The combined market share of the six Chinese companies, including CATL, BYD, Gotion, SVOLT, CALB and EVE, rose 13.3 per cent from 43.1 to 56.4 per cent, exceeding half of the non-China market," SNE Research writes.

Where is demand growing?

Growth is uneven. Demand in Europe and Asia compensated for persistent weakness in North America, the analysts note. China itself is also slowing: including China, global growth was only 19.7 per cent, against 24.7 per cent excluding it.

CATL leads the ranking with 143.7 GWh outside China, exactly one third of the market, after 47 per cent growth. Its European volumes rose 35 per cent from 71.5 to 96.8 GWh, while its Asian volumes doubled to 27.1 GWh.

BYD ranks third with 45.9 GWh, up 67 per cent, lifting its share from 8.0 to 10.8 per cent. That growth spans Europe (17.4 GWh, +67 per cent), Asia (14.8 GWh, +41 per cent) and South America (7.1 GWh, +136 per cent). The second-tier Chinese suppliers grew even faster: SVOLT by 102 per cent to 13.1 GWh, CALB by 88.5 per cent to 10.6 GWh, and EVE Energy by 215 per cent to 9.5 GWh.

What happened to the Korean trio?

LG Energy Solution, SK On and Samsung SDI supplied 113.0 GWh outside China, down 13.5 per cent year over year. Their combined share fell 11.7 percentage points, from 38.2 to 26.5 per cent. The damage concentrated in North America, where the trio's installed capacity nearly halved from 56.1 to 28.1 GWh. Europe grew slightly, from 58.7 to 63.0 GWh, and Asia from 13.1 to 17.5 GWh.

LG Energy Solution held second place with 69.8 GWh, down 4.9 per cent. Growth in Europe (+13 per cent to 38.6 GWh) and Asia (+49 per cent to 11.1 GWh) could not offset a 45 per cent collapse in North America, from 29.9 to 16.5 GWh. Its share fell 5.1 points to 16.4 per cent.

SK On, in fifth place, fell to 28.2 GWh, down 18 per cent. "The company supplies batteries to Hyundai Motor Group, Ford, Volkswagen, and Mercedes-Benz, among others, but its usage declined 46.7 per cent in North America and 2.2 per cent in Europe," the study states.

Samsung SDI recorded the sharpest decline among the top 10: 15.0 GWh, down 34.4 per cent, with its share falling from 6.7 to 3.5 per cent. European sales held stable at 9.4 GWh, but North American volumes dropped 66 per cent, from 12.0 to 4.1 GWh.

What role does cell chemistry play?

LFP (lithium iron phosphate) cells, a cheaper chemistry in which Chinese producers lead, took 27.7 per cent of the non-China market, up from 15.8 per cent. In Europe, LFP adoption is spreading "mainly in entry-level models, making price competitiveness a key criterion in supplier selection," the analysts said.

Panasonic, the only Japanese supplier in the top tier, ranks fourth with 35.6 GWh, down 0.8 per cent. "Tesla's North American volumes supported its results, but growth fell well short of the non-China market," the authors said. Its share fell 2.1 points to 8.4 per cent.

What comes next?

SNE Research expects regional political frameworks and demand diversification to decide supplier competitiveness. Some manufacturers, particularly in North America, are shifting toward stationary storage batteries to diversify. For Europe, the analysts point to the EU's Auto Package, the incentive effect of the combustion engine phase-out, and potential "Made-in-Europe" rules as decisive factors. Watch those policy decisions, and whether the Korean trio's North American volumes stabilise, over the coming quarters.